Conference Board Leading Economic Index

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a recession and upward before an expansion. The single index value composed from these ten variables has generally proved capable of predicting recessions over the past 50 years.

• The United States Department of Labor’s monthly report on the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the average workweek hours from the Employment Situation report
• The United States Department of Labor’s weekly report on first-time claims for state unemployment insurance
• The United States Census Bureau’s monthly consumer goods and materials report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
• The United States Census Bureau’s monthly non-defense capital goods report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
• The United States Census Bureau’s monthly report on building permits from the Housing Starts and Building Permits report
• The difference (spread) between the interest rates of 10-year United States Treasury notes and the federal funds rate
• The Federal Reserve's inflation-adjusted measure of the M2 money supply
• The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly ISM Index of Manufacturing including: supplier deliveries, imports, production, inventories, new orders, new export orders, order backlogs, prices and employment.
• The S&P 500
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index's consumer expectations

See also

• Economic indicator

External links

• The Conference Board's Global Business Cycle Indicators
• OECD leading indicator statistics
• Floyd Norris - New York Times Piece